Iran Shows Divergent Reactions to Hamas Attack and Gaza Invasion

The death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022 marked a turning point for Iran, sparking nationwide protests that called for the removal of controversial hijab regulations and the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. The Iranian government responded with repression, leading to the deaths of over 400 protesters.

In a Clingendael blog series titled “Iran in Transition,” the authors explore power dynamics in four critical dimensions shaping the country’s direction since Amini’s death: state-society relations, intra-elite dynamics, the economy, and foreign relations. This article specifically analyzes the reactions of Iran’s political elites and its population to the Hamas attack on Israel and the invasion of Gaza in 7/10.

The Islamic Republic has consistently championed Palestinian movements against Israel since its establishment in 1979. This stance is rooted in its ideological orientation of political Islam, which calls for fighting against oppression and standing up for the oppressed across the Islamic world. Iran’s support for Palestine is not limited to serving officials from the conservative/hardline camp, as even reformist and moderate politicians hold similar views.

Following Hamas’s attack on Israel in 7/10, Iran’s senior officials voiced their support for the movement while denying direct involvement. However, the Iranian public’s response to the attack differed from that of other Muslim nations. In Iran, there were critical views of Hamas and even expressions of support for Israel on social media. This contrast between the official stance and public sentiment reflects a shift in how Iranian society engages with the government’s foreign policy.

The article explores several factors contributing to this divergence. Iranians’ memory of the Iran-Iraq war and their preference for diplomacy over conflict are key factors. There is also a growing discontent with the Iranian government’s prioritization of foreign policy over domestic issues. Economic challenges and a desire for national development have fueled skepticism of the government’s foreign policy and its focus on Palestine.

The roots of this public sentiment can also be attributed to the Iranian diaspora, which has played a role in articulating and disseminating critical narratives about the government’s foreign policy. Many Iranians in the diaspora view support for Israel as a way to distance themselves from official Iranian policies.

This shift in public sentiment poses challenges for the Iranian government, which has failed to persuade the public of the merits of its policies. The government’s narrative broadcasted by state media has not bridged the gap between public and political perceptions of the common good and public priorities. Opposition to the government’s regional involvement is not new and has gained traction in recent years, leading to spontaneous expressions of dissent.

The article concludes that the divergence between state and society on the Palestinian issue reflects a lack of popular support for Iran’s regional security policy. This lack of support could act as a brake on the intensity of any regional conflict and may be exploited by Iran’s adversaries to undermine the regime’s remaining popular support and fuel discontent.

Overall, the divergent reactions to the Hamas attack and Gaza invasion highlight the complexities of Iran’s political dynamics and the challenges the government faces in meeting the expectations and aspirations of its population.