Changing Public Attitudes on the Israeli-Palestinian Issue: Impact of the War

Introduction

The recent conflict between Hamas and Israel has garnered global attention, and it has also influenced American public opinion on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. A survey conducted by the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll with Ipsos sought to understand the American perception of the conflict and the role of the United States, particularly the Biden administration. Although the survey did not directly address attitudes towards the war itself, it provided insights into broader attitudes on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. With the conflict ongoing at the time of the survey, these findings capture a specific moment, and the evolution of public opinion in the coming weeks will be important to monitor.

Partisan Divide on US Policy

The survey revealed that public opinion on US policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian issue remains divided along partisan lines. There has been an increasing majority of Republicans advocating for the United States to lean towards Israel, while a declining majority of Democrats believe the United States should lean towards neither side. The proportion of Republicans favoring alignment with Israel has risen since June, indicating a shift in their preferences. In contrast, Democrats and independents are less inclined to take a side, with a majority expressing a preference for neutrality.

Republicans Favoring Alignment with Israel

A majority of Republicans (71.9%) want the United States to lean towards Israel, compared to 47.3% in June. Among Democrats, 57.4% prefer the United States to take neither side, a drop from 73.4% in June. Similarly, among independents, 53.6% favor neutrality, down from 71.4% in June. These findings suggest a growing polarization along party lines on the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

Increasing Republican Support for Israel

The survey revealed a significant increase in the number of Republicans who want the United States to lean towards Israel. In October, 30.9% of Democrats expressed this preference, compared to 13.7% in June. Independents also exhibited a similar trend, with 37.9% favoring alignment with Israel in October, up from 20.8% in June.

Attitudes of Young Democrats

Interestingly, the attitudes of young Democrats (under 35) remained relatively stable. In June, 14% of young Democrats wanted the United States to lean towards Israel, increasing slightly to 14.7% in October. Similarly, 17% of young Democrats expressed a preference for leaning towards the Palestinians in June, compared to 16.2% in October. Nonetheless, a majority of young Americans (54.5%) expressed a desire for the United States to remain neutral.

Perception of President Joe Biden

The survey also examined public perception of President Joe Biden’s stance on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. More respondents, including Democrats and independents, consider Biden to be “too pro-Israeli” rather than “too pro-Palestinian.” However, a plurality believes his position is “about right.” Republicans, on the other hand, view Biden as more “pro-Palestinian” than “pro-Israeli.”

Uncertainty Surrounding Biden’s Position

A significant percentage of respondents (40%) indicated uncertainty regarding Biden’s alignment with either side. Among Republicans, 26% believe Biden is too pro-Palestinian, while 8% view him as too pro-Israeli. Among Democrats, 1.2% perceive him as too pro-Palestinian, and 24.4% consider him too pro-Israeli. Independents demonstrate a similar sentiment, with 9.5% believing Biden is too pro-Palestinian and 22.3% viewing him as too pro-Israeli. These findings suggest that some respondents who perceive Biden as favoring one side do so because they believe he leans more towards that side than their own preferences.

Biden’s Position and Voting Intentions

A notable finding from the survey is that more respondents claim Biden’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian issue would make them less likely to vote for him if the presidential elections were held today. Approximately 30.9% of respondents expressed being “less likely” to vote for Biden, while 14.2% said they would be “more likely” to vote for him. However, a majority (52.8%) stated that Biden’s policy on the issue would not impact their voting decision.

Partisan Divide in Voting Intentions

Not surprisingly, the division in attitudes on voting intentions aligns with the partisan divide. Among Democrats, 28.4% said they would be more likely to vote for Biden due to his stance on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, while 10.8% said they would be less likely to do so. In contrast, among Republicans, 57.6% claimed they would be less likely to vote for Biden, compared to 3.2% who would be more likely to support him. These findings raise concerns for Biden’s campaign, as a decrease in support among Democrats, even if relatively small, could be problematic in a closely contested election. The impact of dissent within the Democratic party, especially among progressive young Democrats, and its connection to the war remains a topic of speculation. Additionally, the attitudes of specific voter segments, such as Arab and Muslim Americans, were not captured in this national survey, although reports suggest possible impacts on the presidential election.

Concerns with Independent Voters

The survey also indicated potential challenges among independent voters for Biden. Among independents, 28.3% said they would be less likely to vote for him based on his position on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, compared to 14.5% who would be more likely to support him.

Conclusion

As the conflict in Israel and Gaza continues, its impact on civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction is likely to shape public opinion and foreign policy discussions in the United States for the foreseeable future. The survey findings indicate a noticeable shift in attitudes among key constituencies, except for young Democrats. While public opinion on the Israeli-Palestinian issue remains divided along partisan lines, the increasing alignment of Republicans with Israel underscores growing polarization. The continued division on this issue is expected to persist or intensify as the presidential election season progresses. It remains uncertain whether the initial increase in Americans favoring alignment with Israel will continue or shift in response to ongoing war developments. Monitoring public attitudes in the coming weeks will be crucial to understanding the evolving landscape of opinions.