Image courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications
By Bennett Conlin
JMU Men’s Basketball: When Might They Drop Their First Game?
Now that JMU’s football season has concluded, many fans will shift their attention to the undefeated and ranked men’s basketball team. The Dukes have started the season with a perfect 12-0 record, including thrilling victories over Michigan State and Kent State. They have dominated their opponents, with only two games decided by single digits.
JMU has won their last seven games by at least 10 points, taking advantage of a weak schedule. The Sun Belt conference, in particular, offers favorable matchups for JMU, which could result in the Dukes carrying their undefeated record into 2024.
Potential Challenges and At-Large Chances
Let’s examine when JMU might face their first loss and consider their at-large chances for the NCAA Tournament.
Between Dec. 30 and Jan. 13
JMU’s conference play begins on December 30 with a home game against Texas State. In this stretch, the Dukes will face several quality opponents who could potentially defeat them. App State, which previously defeated Auburn, will visit JMU on January 13. The Mountaineers pose a challenge for the Dukes, as they excel in minimizing turnovers and scoring inside the arc.
JMU will also face Louisiana on the road on January 4, and Southern Miss on the road two days later, which could prove to be tough matchups, especially if Andre Curbelo is eligible to play for the Golden Eagles.
If the Dukes can remain undefeated through this five-game stretch, it will require exceptional performances.
Between Jan. 18 and Jan. 27
The Dukes’ toughest game left on their schedule is a road game against App State on January 27. According to KenPom, this is the only game where JMU is projected to be an underdog. This game presents the Dukes’ best opportunity to strengthen their at-large NCAA Tournament resume in conference play.
Thus, the road game against App State stands out as a potential spot for JMU to experience their first loss or, if they have already dropped a game, another loss.
Feb. 1 and March 1
During this period, Arkansas State at No. 173 is the strongest conference opponent JMU will face, according to KenPom. Given their level of competition, the Dukes should continue winning a significant number of conference games in February, further bolstering their already impressive record. If JMU enters February undefeated, it’s worth considering the possibility of them completing the regular season with a perfect record. KenPom projects the Dukes as double-digit favorites in six of their nine SBC games from Feb. 1 to March 1.
Additionally, JMU will have a home game against a formidable MAC team (exact opponent is yet to be determined) on Feb. 10, providing a good test for the Dukes.
Could JMU Secure an At-Large NCAA Tournament Spot?
While achieving an undefeated season is unlikely, JMU is building a compelling case for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament if they do not win the conference tournament. Currently ranked No. 30 in the NET rankings, the Dukes have a strong selling point for inclusion in the tournament. Although the Sun Belt conference lacks strength compared to other conferences, a significant win against Michigan State suggests that JMU is deserving of consideration.
To secure an at-large spot, JMU needs to avoid devastating losses and perform well against top Sun Belt contenders on the road. An overall record of 28-3 before the conference tournament would be impressive. However, even three losses might be too many, given the Dukes’ strength of schedule.
It’s essential to monitor the margin of victory as well, as blowout wins can lead to notable improvements in the NET rankings. On the other hand, close wins against weaker opponents could potentially hurt their rankings. Therefore, the Dukes should aim for more decisive victories.