Home News and Politics Moderna Positioned to Achieve 2023 COVID Vaccine Prediction, Unlike Pfizer, Analysts Reveal – National

Moderna Positioned to Achieve 2023 COVID Vaccine Prediction, Unlike Pfizer, Analysts Reveal – National

Moderna Positioned to Achieve 2023 COVID Vaccine Prediction, Unlike Pfizer, Analysts Reveal – National

Moderna Expected to Reach Lower End of Sales Target as COVID Vaccine Demand Rises

According to industry analysts, Moderna is projected to meet the lower end of its sales target for this year. The company only needs to tap into a small portion of the private market with its COVID vaccine to achieve its goal of $2 billion in sales by 2023. Analysts believe this figure is attainable, as around 20 million people need to be vaccinated with Moderna’s updated COVID-19 vaccine to reach this target.

In the fall season, Moderna anticipates a total demand of up to 100 million doses of its COVID vaccine in the United States. The company expects $6 billion to $8 billion in sales for its COVID-19 vaccine in 2023, with $2 billion to $4 billion coming from the commercial market. Previously signed government contracts will account for the remainder of the sales.

Moderna’s Sales Forecast and Comparisons to Pfizer

The accuracy of Moderna’s sales forecast was questioned after Pfizer reduced its full-year outlook for COVID-19 shot sales by approximately $2 billion due to lower-than-expected vaccination rates. As a result, Moderna’s shares have fallen about 22% since Pfizer’s warning. However, analysts believe Moderna’s sales outlook will not experience a similar decline, as the company started with a more conservative forecast.

Positive Outlook for Moderna

Analyst Michael Yee from Jefferies noted that while the rollout of the new COVID-19 shots began slowly, recent data suggests an increase in demand. Yee predicts that most of the demand will come from individuals aged 65 and over.

Moderna plans to report its third-quarter results shortly after Pfizer’s posting of its first quarterly loss since 2019. Pfizer’s loss is attributed to a significant charge resulting from the U.S. government returning millions of doses of its COVID-19 antiviral treatment Paxlovid and excess inventory of its COVID vaccine Comirnaty.

Expansion of Moderna’s Product Line

Moderna’s COVID vaccine is currently its sole marketed product. The company’s research and development (R&D) costs increased by 62% to $1.1 billion in the second quarter as it aims to bring other products to market, including a flu vaccine and a shot against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

In a late-stage trial, Moderna’s RSV vaccine demonstrated efficacy of 82.4% in older adults with three or more symptoms. The company plans to launch this vaccine in the United States in 2024, which will compete with recently approved vaccines from Pfizer and GSK.

Additionally, data from a late-stage study of Moderna’s flu vaccine with an updated formulation revealed a stronger immune response against all four A and B strains of the influenza virus compared to traditional flu shots. Moderna’s broader mRNA-based respiratory pipeline, which includes RSV and flu vaccines, is expected to generate $10 billion to $12 billion in sales, providing R&D stability by 2025.


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