The Australia-China Relationship: Future Challenges and Opportunities
The Institute welcomed inaugural AIIA/China Matters Fellow, Yun Jiang, on Tuesday 28 November 2023 to discuss the evolving dynamics of the Australia-China relationship. Yun shared her first-hand observations from a recent trip to China supported by the AIIA and China Matters. While some aspects of the relationship have returned to normalcy following the lifting of Covid-19 border restrictions, China faces several challenges in the post-pandemic era.
Challenges in Post-Pandemic China
China’s consumer confidence has not fully recovered, cost of living pressures are increasing, and fierce competition in the job market is making it difficult for young people to find employment. Moreover, intergenerational inequality resulting from economic involution has caused unrest and a decline in the profitability of Chinese businesses. These factors have also led to a decrease in foreign investment.
Yun noted that major Chinese cities such as Shanghai and Beijing appeared to have fewer non-Chinese residents. This may be due to a growing sense of nationalism, self-reliance, anti-espionage measures, and xenophobia, which could be deterring foreign visitors and investors.
Perceptions of Australia in China
During her trip, Yun conducted interviews to gauge China’s perception of Australia. Public opinion, especially after Prime Minister Albanese’s visit, is generally positive. However, scholars in international relations exhibit greater pessimism, expressing concerns about Australia’s lack of an independent foreign policy and its impact on the long-term success of the bilateral relationship. In China, there is also a prevalent victim narrative, linking the country’s actions to its perception of being contained by the US.
Yun questioned this victim narrative, considering China’s significant rise in power. Some argue privately that China’s projected image is false. However, the popular narrative, promoted by the CCP, is that China chooses not to be a hegemon and instead presents itself as a pacifist. The country is unwilling to acknowledge the negative consequences of its actions, such as those in the South China Sea.
The Interplay of Economics and Security
Yun emphasized the growing intertwining of economics and security in China, which has implications for the Australia-China relationship. As China seeks self-reliance in areas like food production, defense, and technology, Australia is pursuing a policy of ‘friend-shoring’ with its traditional allies. Mutual suspicion and self-censorship in both countries have strained bilateral ties, with fewer individuals willing to bridge the gap between the two nations.
Maintaining the Relationship
Yun’s findings suggest that maintaining the Australian-Chinese relationship is challenging but not impossible. An avoidance of fatalism and a rational response to the actions of other countries, while considering broader perspectives beyond national interest, may help build stronger relationships in the long term. Australia could take unilateral steps to resist securitization and focus on building trust with China. Encouraging nuanced public debates and supporting evidence-based research could also aid in normalizing relations.
Perceptions of Australian-Made Products and Education
Australian-made products are still well-respected in China. However, domestic Chinese brands, particularly in the tech sector, are gaining popularity. Similarly, while many government positions are filled by individuals educated in China, numerous people, especially women, still aspire to study overseas due to the reputation of foreign universities and to escape gender expectations within China.
Addressing Audience Inquiries
The audience posed questions on various topics, including discrimination against Chinese Australians, Chinese attitudes towards AUKUS, the risks of discussing politics publicly, and the future of the Belt and Road Initiative.
The Role of Trade in Ensuring Security
In regards to the relationship’s security, Yun cautioned that fear is often a more powerful motivator than greed. However, she acknowledged that her pessimistic view may be influenced by her extensive experience in international affairs.
Report by Imogen Biggins, AIIA NSW Intern
Image: Yun Jiang and Imogen Biggins