The Asia-Pacific: Pondering the Growing Chances of War
Thucydides trap: from the Greek historian’s statement that the alarm of the established power at the challenge of the rising power makes war inevitable.
The Alarming Chances of War in the Asia-Pacific Region
The policy community in Australia, along with the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, is increasingly concerned about the growing possibility of war. Gareth Evans, in the Australian chapter of the CSCAP Regional Security Outlook 2024, highlights the fear that nations can unwittingly stumble into war, despite it going against rational self-interest. This sentiment is echoed in the annual survey by editor Ron Huisken, who describes the escalating tension between China and the US as deflating the regional spirit and inflaming conflicts. The concept of the Thucydides Trap has become a prominent theme throughout the region.
Key Concerns and Areas of Agreement
The Australian policy community agrees on several critical points:
- The regional security environment is fragile and volatile.
- The most significant international challenge is navigating the delicate relationship between China and the United States.
- More resources are needed for defense and foreign policy compared to previous years.
- While ASEAN plays a vital role in diffusing tensions in Southeast Asia, it has been unable to collectively resist China’s overreach.
- The Quad, although primarily symbolic in military terms, enjoys substantial support in Canberra.
Evans also expresses concerns about the uncertain nature of US domestic politics and its impact on the country’s role as a regional security stabilizer and balancer.
Growing Tensions within the Australian Government
Former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans observes increasing tensions within the current Labor government regarding Australia’s relationship with the US. However, he believes there is no serious inclination to walk away from the ANZUS alliance. Prime Minister Albanese is described as an “instinctive straddler” who is comfortable discussing matters with Washington. Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles is seen as a staunch supporter of the alliance, while Foreign Minister Penny Wong leans towards skepticism, particularly regarding the continued US dominance.
The Risk of Unintentional Conflict
American perspective Gregory Poling emphasizes that while a US-China conflict over Taiwan does not appear imminent, the risk of unintentional clashes, particularly in the air, is worrisome. Poling cites instances of Chinese aircraft engaging in reckless maneuvers that increase the likelihood of mid-air collisions. With limited communication between the US and Chinese military, deescalation in case of crisis would prove challenging.
India’s Strategic Alignment and Loss of Autonomy
Sourabh Gupta, of the Institute for China-America Studies, argues that India must choose between strategic autonomy and strategic alignment. India’s fixation on countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific has eroded its room for strategic maneuvering. Gupta believes strategic autonomy has given way to alignment with the US and the West in the region, a result that was not entirely India’s choice.
The Bloodiest Decade since the end of the Cold War
Joel Ng, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, suggests that the 2020s could be the bloodiest decade since the Cold War’s conclusion. Many states are increasingly anticipating and preparing for conflict. The deteriorating relationship between China and the US poses a significant challenge for the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). Ng calls for proactive action and proposes that ASEAN consider convening a conference of TAC signatories as a high-visibility first step towards initiating new confidence-building measures.
A Push for Greater ASEAN Involvement
Outlook editor Ron Huisken argues that if ASEAN wants to assert its centrality, it must go beyond quiet diplomacy and push the major powers towards a workable accommodation and a joint commitment to a more constructive regional security agenda. An assertive ASEAN would encourage dialogue between the US and China on the preferred character of the region. However, it is noteworthy that China did not contribute a chapter to the 2024 security outlook, repeating the absence from the previous year. This absence suggests caution from China’s strategists and a possible lack of interest in discussing the “rules-based system” that they may view as a veiled reference to Western dominance.
Russia’s Transformative Change in Foreign Policy
Ekaterina Koldunova, of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, highlights the transformative change in Russia’s foreign policy, security outlook, and economy. Western sanctions and the political and military crisis in Ukraine have prompted Russia to focus on developments in Asia and seek opportunities for cooperation. However, tensions with Japan and South Korea persist, reinforcing the notion that Russia’s pivot to Asia is predominantly a pivot to China. Moscow sees the deviation from Western rules as a shared aspiration among many countries in Asia.
The Growing Danger of Conflict
In the Asia-Pacific region, concerns about the international system’s health and the erosion of rules have heightened the fear of conflict. The possibility of unintended clashes, in particular, keeps the region on edge. Despite any hidden aspirations, the region resonates with the fear of Thucydides’ tune and the potential for war.